The chief pollster and founder of The Trafalgar Group says one consequence of Joe Biden’s recent venomous attacks on Trump supporters is it is now “virtually impossible” to poll and estimate as the midterms approach since 2022 Republicans have now become “submerged voters.”
Inciting extreme divisiveness close to a general election has its cost when it comes to reliable polling, noted Robert Cahaly last week in a social media thread as he spelled out one of the effects of Biden’s Labor Day speech in Wisconsin.
In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
“In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly observed. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”
“In 2020,” the pollster continued, “people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed.’ This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations.”
I call this new group “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
“Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them,” Cahaly said, “This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”
Cahaly said he is calling this new group “submerged voters.”
“They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls,” he explained. “At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
In his speech on September 5, Biden assailed Trump supporters, or “Trumpies,” as he called them, as a threat to American democracy.
“[T]he extreme MAGA Republicans in Congress have chosen to go backwards, full of anger, violence, hate and division,” Biden said.
“Extreme MAGA Republicans don’t just threaten our personal rights and our economic security,” he added. “They embrace political violence.”
Recent polling at the time of Biden’s vicious attack against Trump supporters, however, does not support his view that Republicans are a threat to America.
A Trafalgar Group poll conducted September 2-5 and released in partnership with Convention of States Action found 58.7 percent of voters say Biden has divided the country, while 20.6 percent say he has unified the country, and 20.7 percent are not sure.
A key outcome of the same poll found 92.8 percent of Republicans and 64.1 percent of Independents say Biden has divided the country, while 17.9 percent of Democrats say the same.
voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
“The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing,” Cahaly asserted regarding his theory about the effects of Biden’s speech. “All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.’”
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Susan Berry, PhD, is national education editor at The Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Trump Supporters” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0.
